(May 26, 2020, 8 p.m. ET) The new Coronavirus federal aid package, the CARES Act, expands options for distributions from IRAs and qualified retirement plans.
(May 20, 2020, 8 p.m. ET) As mandated by the Coronavirus Aid Relief & Economic Security (CARES) Act on March 27, individuals harmed by the epidemic may make withdrawals from an IRA, 401(k) or 403(b) account before age 59½ without facing the usual 10% federally-imposed early withdrawal penalty.
(May 13, 2020, 4 p.m. ET) During this bleak period in world history, amid the terrible news of death, sickness and financial destruction, there are reasons for hope and promising signs of a U.S. recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.
(May 5, 2020, 8 p.m. EST) - While the coronavirus pandemic has exacted a once-unimaginable toll in human life, its financial cost is cushioned by an unusual confluence of global conditions shielding Americans from a much-worse economic catastrophe.
(Tuesday, April 28, 8 p.m. EST) The partial shutdown of the economy is captured in these four snapshots of fundamentals in March.
(Wednesday, April 22, 2020) The Coronavirus financial crisis is being compared to the near collapse of the global financial system in 2008 and The Great Depression from 1929 to 1939, but there is one big difference this time: The Fed. The Federal Reserve Bank is using innovative new tools to contain the financial damage of the Coronavirus epidemic.
(Tuesday, April 14, 2020, 8 p.m. EST) - By August 4, 2020, the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent public health research center at the University of Washington, expected 68,841 deaths from COVID-19 in the U.S.
(Tuesday, April 7, 2020, 8 p.m. EST) -- For business owners who have not yet submitted an application for Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) financial assistance from the U.S. Government, there's good news and bad.
(Thursday, April 1, 2020, 4 p.m. EST) - A cornerstone of the U.S. Government response to the economic crisis caused by the pandemic is the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act), a history-making $2.2 trillion law that just went into effect. With almost no strings attached, CARES extends financial support to business owners in need under the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP).
(Tuesday, March 24, 2020, 7:30 p.m. EST) The stock market lost about a third of its value before rebounding 9.4% today on news that Congress was closer to an agreement on a $2 trillion economic stimulus package. The coronavirus crisis has reshaped the financial economic landscape and the situation is changing fast. Here are nine financial focal points for your immediate consideration.
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About The Weakness In Manufacturing
After the manufacturing sector numbers for August were published on Tuesday, September 3rd, the financial press erupted with grim headlines. Largely absent from the coverage was proper context: The manufacturing purchasing managers index has predicted six of the last three recessions, and manufacturing accounts for about 12% of U.S. economic activity. Here are the facts.
From a record-high level in September 2018 of 61.3%, manufacturing activity has plunged, and the latest monthly data for August showed further deterioration.
From 51.2% in July, the manufacturing economy dropped to 49.1%.
This data series from the Institute of Supply Management, which certifies purchasing management professionals employed across the U.S. and globally, is designed to signal a recession when it falls to less than 50%. But in the last three decades, it has predicted six of the last three recessions.
Over the last three economic cycles, the ISM Manufacturing Index dipped below 50% six times and was not followed by a recession; rather, it soared again and after it dropped to less than the 50% recession signal.
The drop in manufacturing is not good news, but manufacturing represents only 12% of the U.S. economy, and the track record of the index at forecasting recessions is very mixed.
The 88% of the economy outside of manufacturing — the much more important part of the economy — is growing slower than the tax-cut fueled peak of September 2018, but it's doing okay.
"The past relationship between the PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the PMI® for August (49.1%) corresponds to a 1.8% increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis," according to Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the ISM® Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.
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